I was born and raised in Cortland, New York—a city in Upstate New York where the cows used to outnumber the people.
Where I grew up is nothing like New York City, which boasts Radio City Music Hall, Broadway Musicals, the New York Yankees, Saturday Night Live, and countless stars and politicians—including President Donald Trump.
Even though I live in California today, I still find the drama of NYC intriguing.
At the moment, real drama with national implications is playing out amongst New York’s elite– namely through Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, NYC Mayoral Candidate Zohran Mamdani, and former NY Governor Andrew Cuomo.
🎬 Act 1 – the Actors
Stage Left is Zohran Mamdani, the frontrunner for Mayor of New York City, a job that comes with instant national status, being that New York is the largest city in the nation.
Mamdani is part of a young far-left coalition, representing the energy of the Democrat base. He’s young, charismatic, and bold. By bold, I mean that he is someone who is not afraid to be on the fringe. His stands on government-run grocery stores, support of Hamas, and his anti-capitalist mantra work seem to well for him—he leads his closest competitor, Andrew Cuomo, by nearly 20 points—with the election just 16 days away. (Note that one poll shows that in a two-way race, the race tightens with Mamdani only leading Cuomo by 4 points).
It shouldn’t be lost on anyone whose followed politics even a little bit that Andrew Cuomo is a flawed candidate. Cuomo, who followed his father’s footsteps to become New York Governor, represents establishment Democrats. Andrew is a celebrity of sorts, dating starlets and possessing a gift of gab any politician would envy. Cuomo got in trouble for potentially harrassing staff members, mishandling of eldercare in nursing homes during the pandemic, and overt brash behavior, eventually resigning as New York’s Governor in 2021. Now he wants to be Mayor of NYC. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why Mamdani is beating him.
Enter progressive firebrand, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC). At just 36, she is unapologetic and fierce—the leader of the fringe left and a supporter of Mamdani.
You might have heard that AOC has been contemplating a primary challenge to New York U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
🎬 Act 2 – The Schumer Shuffle
They must have wondered why CNN even asked the question—weren’t they supposed to stick to the talking points?
AOC even called it ‘insane’ to suggest that her potential primary challenge is the reason Senator Schumer is shutting government down.
In last week’s post on this page, I talked about the national ramifications of an AOC – Schumer primary, with recent polls showing AOC leading Schumer by nearly 20 points in a head-to-head matchup for NY Senate, if the election were held today. Granted, it is an eternity between today and a 2028 campaign.
So, in the next 16 days—in one City in one State—I can see the entire national Democratic Party campaign for the mid-term elections in 2026 playing out between far-left firebrands and the Democrat Party establishment.
Schumer may continue to hold votes he knows will fail to re-open government. The grandstanding about potential losses of pandemic funding of Obamacare that expire at the end of the year are the center of the conversation, even though Schumer has said countless times that shutdowns are bad and voted for the same bill six months ago:
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, said on X earlier this month: “Just six months ago, Chuck Schumer voted for this same clean, nonpartisan continuing resolution, and insisted we could not possibly shut the government down because it would be so destructive! But now, solely because he’s afraid of a Marxist primary challenge in NY—he’s REVERSED his position. It’s selfish. It’s foolish. And it’s hurting real Americans.”
At the moment, Schumer’s poker hand isn’t a good enough bet. At the moment, he is folding under the pressure of the progressive left flank – led by AOC and Mamdani—who seek to make the far left the majority in the Democrat Party.
Schumer is paralyzed, between his establishment roots representing old guard of New York and the Democrat party, looking for ways to pacify the left-wing energy.
🎬 Act 3 – The Finale
With 16 days left until the New York Mayor’s Race is settled, Zohran Mamdani is the likely winner. When that happens, it will be difficult for Schumer to make a move that’s not left-facing, with a new, young face dominating the news.
So, as Schumer reads the tea leaves and his party’s likely shift, what will he do?
Let’s remember that Republicans control the Presidency as well as the majorities in the U.S. Senate & U.S. House.
If Schumer shuffles right and votes to reopen government, he loses the enthusiasm of the far-left base. If he continues to shuffle left, he places the livelihood of government workers and those who depend on them in doubt, through a protracted government shutdown.
Though the actors in the finale are not yet cast, the drama continues, as does the government shut down.
My prediction: Regardless of what happens with the government shutdown, don’t be surprised if Schumer’s final act is his exit stage left, as early as 2026, if the Democrats do not take the U.S. Senate.
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